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000
FXUS61 KILN 312303
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
603 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Light snow probability decreased and shifted a bit further south on
Tuesday/night. This resulted in expected accumulations less than an
inch.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frigid temperatures will continue through this weekend.
2) Periods of light snow possible throughout the week, with best
chance of light accumulations Thursday night into Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1) An arctic air mass will linger across the middle Ohio
Valley through this weekend. The center of anomalously cold surface
high pressure will slowly shift east from the southern Plains this
afternoon into the lower Mississippi Valley Sunday, then to the
central and southern Appalachians Monday. High temperatures will
slowly rise into the 20s to low 30s Monday and Tuesday on the back
side of the high before dropping back into the teens Wednesday and
Thursday. At this time, ensemble guidance does not produce a high-
confidence thaw through the period.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A very weak disturbance will slide through the Great
Lakes Monday as the surface high shifts to our east. Latest guidance
remains rather dry. However, have continued to add a slight chance of
snow across our northern counties since it won't take much moisture
and lift in this very cold air mass.
Another weak system will move from the lower Mississippi Valley to
the southeastern United States Tuesday and Tuesday night. This system
has trended further south on our latest model runs, so coverage of
precipitation as well as potential accumulations have been reduced...
now with less than an inch across our southern zones.
A more significant mid-level shortwave drops southeast into the lower
Lakes Thursday night and Friday. Isentropic lift ahead of the wave
will bring snow chances back across our area, with a focus over our
northern counties. Will need to continue to monitor this system as
far as potential light snow accumulations and also wind and
reinforced arctic air behind it heading into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A blanket of borderline MVFR/VFR CIGs continues to slowly drift to
the S through the region, with some ISO bands of SHSN as well. WIthin
the steadiest/heaviest SHSN, some brief MVFR/IFR VSBY is possible,
although expect the coverage of this activity to wane within the
first hour or two of the TAF period.
Although there are currently some breaks in the clouds as observed on
nighttime microphysics imagery, this may only be temporary as the
latest guidance is keeping these borderline MVFR/VFR CIGs persisting
across much of the region through at least 15z. This should be most
pronounced for ern sites of KCMH/KLCK/KILN into early afternoon
before some scattering out evolves W to E toward the latter part of
the TAF period.
Northerly winds around 5kts will go more out of the NW toward
daybreak before going more westerly into the afternoon. Winds will
generally stay around 5kts through the entirety of the period.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs are likely, with MVFR VSBYs and IFR CIGs
possible Monday. MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are possible again Tuesday into
Tuesday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday
for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday
for KYZ089>100.
IN...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday
for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KC
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