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000 FXUS61 KILN 252334 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 734 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Slightly slower onset time for storms Thursday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warming trend through Thursday. Colder Friday and Saturday after cold frontal passage. 2) Thunderstorms will be associated with a cold front passage that moves through Thursday night. The potential for storms to become strong to severe exists. Also, a localized flood threat will exist. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Southerly wind have returned to the region on the back side of the retreating high pressure. This marks the be beginning of a warm up with afternoon readings from the lower 60s north east to around 70 southwest. An initial round of showers and embedded thunderstorms looks to affect the area overnight associated with a warm front and favorable isentropic lift. Instability is very limited and elevated, so severe weather is not expected from any storms that develop. This precipitation looks to pass off to the east early Thursday morning. In the warm sector most of ILN/s area stays dry until surface cold front slips into the north Thursday evening. Temperatures warm up over 20 degrees above normal. Expect highs from the upper 70s northeast to the lower 80s southwest. These readings will approach or possibly exceed record highs. The records for Thursday 3/26 CVG 82 set in 1907 DAY 81 set in 1907 CMH 80 set in 1907 There is the potential for readings to warm above the NBM mean values of 82 at CVG, 80 at DAY, and 76 at CMH. The NBM 75th percentile exceeds the records by 4 at CVG, 3 at DAY, and 3 at CMH. There has been a trend slightly warmer with these values over the last 24 hours. The front exists the area early Friday with lingering rain showers ending through late morning. Much cooler temperatures settle into the area with highs on Friday are expected to range from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s south. KEY MESSAGE 2) Strong mid level winds push south thru the Great Lakes Thursday night into the Ohio Valley Friday. A strong cold front will push south into ILN/s northern counties late Thursday evening and then south of the area overnight Thursday. Model solutions continue to suggest that a CAP will inhibit convective development in the warm sector for much of the daytime hours. Expect convective activity to hold off until the strong low-level forcing arrives with the frontal boundary. ML guidance and analogs continue to point to the potential for severe weather with the storms Thursday night. Steep mid level lapse rates will be in place over the region, and this will aid destabilization, with moderate instability expected. Given the strong deep-layer flow, hodographs also are elongated/straight. Higher resolution models show a weak surface wave tracking along the east-west boundary during the evening (most likely just north of ILN/s FA). The best threat for rotating storms and potential tornadoes looks to occur across ILN/s northern counties early in the evening ahead of this wave - if convection were to develop a little south into the area. Supercells producing large hail are possible, even with elevated convection to the cool side of the boundary. As we head into the later evening hours, convection is expected to develop into a line or line segments. Damaging winds will continue to be a threat. The storms weaken and severe threat diminishes as the storms and front shifts south during the nighttime hours and approach the Ohio River. PWAT values look to be between 275 to 300 percent of normal Thursday night. Although the system is progressive and the front looks to sink south quickly, with the anomalously high PWATs, and mean flow parallel to the front, the potential exists for localized stripes of 2-3 inches of rainfall. Will continue to highlight this localized flood threat in the HWO. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions in place across the region for the start of the TAF period and will continue for several hours. Winds will be out of the southwest around 10 knots or so. A warm front will lift through the region overnight, promoting an initial round of showers and embedded thunderstorms during the early morning hours on Thursday. Instability is minimal, so opted to not include thunder in the TAFs at this time, however it may need to be added in. Concurrent with this, guidance hints at the introduction of LLWS out of the southwest shortly after midnight, but is splotchy with it. For now, have opted to not include in the TAFs but (again) this may need to be added in. This initial wave of precip will move east by sunrise Thursday and low level clouds hang around. Trended optimistically for the TAFs and went low end VFR, but would not be surprised if some patchy MVFR makes an appearance. Winds will begin to pick up after sunrise, around 15 kts sustained gusting to 25 kts out of the southwest. Clouds will thin throughout the day, becoming SCT by late afternoon hours. Thunderstorms will move into the region Thursday night, though did not include in the TAFs at this time due to time range. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities in thunderstorms overnight Thursday. Lingering MVFR ceilings possible early Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...CA